Preventing Tax Evasion of the Commercial Tax Departments through Statistical Models


  •   R. Venkataraman Centre for Management Studies, Presidency College
  •   Seeboli Ghosh Kundu ITM Business School & Research scholar at Bharathiar University



Tax Evasion, Statistical Models, Logistic Regression, Misclassification, Input/Output Tax, Exempted/ Total Turnover, Predictive Model, Age of Account, Odds Ratio, Model Coefficient.


Billions of dollars across the Tax administrations around the world are lost every year due to noncompliance, evasions, frauds or non-collection including both direct and indirect taxes. With access to vast quantities of data from a range of sources (e.g. financial institutions, utilities, bank transactions, social media data, etc.) both in terms of structured as well as unstructured (text, video, pdfs, etc.), tax authorities can increasingly use business rules, quantitative statistical models and advance analytics techniques to conduct audits and uncover trends and discrepancies, using new techniques such as rulebased monitoring, predictive modelling and outlier detection. This paper will showcase how the tax authorities should be moving into the predictive mode rather than post audit reactive mode for zeroing on the probable risky dealers in the indirect tax domain for highest impact of revenue recovery and collection through a statistical, scientific and information driven model for decision making.




How to Cite

Venkataraman, R., & Kundu, S. G. (2016). Preventing Tax Evasion of the Commercial Tax Departments through Statistical Models. Adarsh Journal of Management Research, 9(2), 13–18.


Bryman, A (2006) Integrating quantitative and qualitative research: how is it done?’ Qualitative research, Vol.6, No. 1, pp. 97 – 113 Sage

Creswell John W., (2003) Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches. 2nd Ed. Sage Publications.

Creswell. J. W. & Miller. D. L. (2000): Determining validity in qualitative inquiry. Theory into Practice, 39(3), 124-131.

Datar P. Arvind, “Why the Code must be shelvedâ€, Business Line , 8th May 2010, p. 9.

Government of India (2006).Towards Faster and more Inclusive Growth - An Approach to the 11th Five Year Plan. Planning Commission.

Kelkar, V. (2010).Financial Inclusion for Inclusive Growth. ASCI Journal of Management, 39 (1), 55-68.

Kumar, Nagar and Samanta, “Performance of Income Tax Department: An Appraisalâ€, Indian Management Studies Journal , Vol. 9, 2007.

Philip Genschel and peter schwarz ((2011),Oxford University Press.

Rangarajan Committee (2008). Report of the Committee on Financial Inclusion, Government of India.

Reserve Bank of India (2011).Report of Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2000-11, Mumbai.

Saunders, M, Lewis, P Thornhill, A, 2007; Research methods for business students, 4th Edition, Prentice Hall

Singh, Jaspal & Sharma, Poonam, “Tax Professionals Perception of the Income Tax System of India an Empirical Evidenceâ€, the ICFAI Journal of Public Finance, Volume 5, No. 1, February 2007, pp. 45-56